A recent market forecast from KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says that Apple will be seeing a marked increase in shipments for the just-released iPad mini with Retina display over the coming months at the expense of iPad Air market share, while the iPad 2 may be discontinued in the first quarter of 2014. The newly redesigned iPad Air and “higher-than-expected” iPad mini sales will be driving overall iPad shipments to 23.1 million units for the fourth quarter of 2013.
Apple is said to see a 102% quarter-over-quarter boost in iPad mini with Retina display shipments in the first quarter of 2014, bringing the total up to 4.5 million units. This is based on low supplies of the tablet at launch and seasonal demand of course. Although the analyst is upping the sequential growth estimates with overall iPad shipments to 64% quarter-over-quarter to accommodate seasonality, specifically for holiday shoppers, he sees the number slipping to 42% at the start of 2014. According to Kuo, shipments will dip to 13.3 million units due to seasonality and slower sales of the iPad Air.
Shipments of the larger iPad will fall from 10.5 million units in the fourth quarter to 6 million units next quarter, down 43%. Accounting for the change is cannibalization from the Retina iPad mini and what Kuo calls “structural challenges” to the tablet sector. According to him:
We think current tablet products can, generally, sufficiently meet entertainment needs. As they are very cheap already, lowering prices won't effectively stimulate demand. Only new applications, which will bring about new growth momentum, will be able to solve the structural problems the sector faces.
Source: KGI Securities via AppleInsider
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