• iPad 2: What Are the Odds?

    With the iPad 2 release just a couple hours away, the tech world is reviewing all the rumors that have been swirling around for months about the new model. Some people are doing more than that, though: apparently the sports book mavens at Bookmaker.com have set a line for the possible features that may be introduced. Their guesses are in line with mainstream opinion, though with Apple's penchant for secrecy it could be that someone betting against the line could have a big win.

    Bookmaker.com is a major sportsline site: the American arm of the giant BetCRIS online gambling empire based in Costa Rica. Their analysts are considered so authoritative that many other sports books wait for BetCRIS to set the odds before setting their own. This is not the first time that the BetCRIS bookies have gotten involved in tech: last September they set a line for the next manufacturer to release a tablet after the PlayBook was announced. Unfortunately, they got that one really, really wrong.

    Risk manager and oddsmaker Tony Harvey seems like he's done better with the iPad 2 announcement line. The most common predictions are given high likelihood, such as three different versions (presumably Wi-Fi, Wi-Fi+GSM and Wi-FI+CDMA), two cameras, and a non-smudge screen and gyroscope. Other predictions are given split odds, like a flat back and a wide-range speaker. Longshots include a 7-inch model and a retina display.

    Obviously, we don't recommend that anyone gamble on this. It's a dumb way to risk your money, and Apple has fooled us before. However, for fun let's look at what they came up with. If you aren't familiar with sports betting, the number after the bet is the money line: +500 means you'd win $1000 on a $500 bet, while -1500 means that if you bet $1500 you'd only win $1000. The percentage in parentheses is the odds that bet will win.

    There will be three versions of the iPad 2
    Yes -1500 (96%)
    No +500 (17%)

    A front and back-facing camera
    Yes -1500 (96%)
    No +500 (17%)

    Slimmer, lighter and retina display
    Yes -5000 (160%)
    No +1000 (9.10%)

    A flat back
    Yes +100 (49%)
    No -160 (61.7%)

    A wide-range speaker
    Yes -130 (56%)
    No -130 (56%)

    A USB port
    Yes +200 (33.3%)
    No -500 (83.3%)

    A dual-core CPU
    Yes -500 (83.3%)
    No +200 (33.3%)

    A non-smudge screen & gyroscope
    Yes -1500 (96%)
    No +500 (17%)

    A 7-inch version
    Yes +1000 (9.10%)
    No -5000 (160%)

    Source: TUAW
    This article was originally published in forum thread: iPad 2: What Are the Odds? started by Paul Daniel Ash View original post
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