• AAPL Enters Bear Market Wednesday

    by
    Michael Essany
    Published on 2012-11-07 11:19 PM
    18 Comments Comments


    On the first day of Wall Street trading since last night's election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 2% and closed below 13,000 for the first time since late summer. The downturn in stocks today spared no sector, walloping tech stocks as well - with Apple facing some of the harshest volatility.

    Specifically, Apple fell better than than 3 percent, capping an astounding 20 percent drop from Apple's all-time high of $705.07 recorded in mid-September. According to analysts speaking with CNBC, AAPL finished the session in "bear market territory."

    "For now, everything has been refreshed and all the new products are out," Tim Ghriskey, Chief Investment Officer of Solaris Asset Management, said. "Then there are questions about whether margins have peaked at this company."

    So what is really worrying investors and analysts? With the iPhone 5 and iPad mini now available, there's a concern that there is "little innovation on the horizon" for Apple in the immediate future. And that could be going a long way to cool the value of the stock.

    Source: CNBC
    This article was originally published in forum thread: AAPL Enters Bear Market Wednesday started by Michael Essany View original post
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    2. Apple
    Comments 18 Comments
    1. feidhlim1986's Avatar
      feidhlim1986 - 2012-11-08, 12:15 AM
      I feel like Apple hasn't truly innovated since the first iPhone.
      Everything since has been an evolution of iPhone and iOS 1.0 but I wouldn't consider any true innovations
    1. luvmytj's Avatar
      luvmytj - 2012-11-08, 12:47 AM
      Maybe you've heard of a little gadget called the iPad? You know, the tablet based computer that all others have now emulated/copied and has changed the face of the laptop market as we know it?
    1. Anonymous's Avatar
      Anonymous - 2012-11-08, 01:12 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by luvmytj View Post
      Maybe you've heard of a little gadget called the iPad? You know, the tablet based computer that all others have now emulated/copied and has changed the face of the laptop market as we know it?
      Well, bill gates had it first. But Apple was able to popularize it.
    1. piston597's Avatar
      piston597 - 2012-11-08, 02:07 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by feidhlim1986 View Post
      I feel like Apple hasn't truly innovated since the first iPhone.
      Everything since has been an evolution of iPhone and iOS 1.0 but I wouldn't consider any true innovations
      I think they peaked at the intro of the iPhone 4 and iPad 2. Those seem to me like their biggest leaps.
    1. shigh's Avatar
      shigh - 2012-11-08, 02:35 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
      Well, bill gates had it first. But Apple was able to popularize it.
      He may have had it first but they couldnt do it right.
    1. sziklassy's Avatar
      sziklassy - 2012-11-08, 06:41 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
      Well, bill gates had it first. But Apple was able to popularize it.
      What? No... Everyone only steals and copies apple. The lawsuits prove it, right?

      Quote Originally Posted by shigh View Post
      He may have had it first but they couldnt do it right.
      That's not at all the point he was making...
    1. ohthatguyagain's Avatar
      ohthatguyagain - 2012-11-08, 06:59 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by shigh View Post
      He may have had it first but they couldnt do it right.
      Meh, if you look it up, Apple and a few others had tablet devices long before billy-g and his microsofties.

      The thing is - nobody got it right before iPad. Not even apple.
    1. svolam's Avatar
      svolam - 2012-11-08, 07:08 AM
      Last year after the 4S launch, Apple announced that Steve Jobs really did not work on 4S, but he was more intensely involved in iPhone 5. Does anyone believe that Steve Jobs worked on re-sizing the iPhone?
    1. feidhlim1986's Avatar
      feidhlim1986 - 2012-11-08, 08:26 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by luvmytj View Post
      Maybe you've heard of a little gadget called the iPad? You know, the tablet based computer that all others have now emulated/copied and has changed the face of the laptop market as we know it?
      Thanks for your sarcasm.
      Personally I don't consider the iPad an innovation, but rather an evolution of the iPhone/iPod Touch.
      (Yes I know the iPad was actually in development first)
    1. Anonymous's Avatar
      Anonymous - 2012-11-08, 01:59 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by svolam View Post
      Last year after the 4S launch, Apple announced that Steve Jobs really did not work on 4S, but he was more intensely involved in iPhone 5. Does anyone believe that Steve Jobs worked on re-sizing the iPhone?
      Could you link to a source?
    1. Glocknine's Avatar
      Glocknine - 2012-11-08, 02:31 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by svolam View Post
      Last year after the 4S launch, Apple announced that Steve Jobs really did not work on 4S, but he was more intensely involved in iPhone 5. Does anyone believe that Steve Jobs worked on re-sizing the iPhone?
      No I dont beleive that Steve worked on the iphone5, because if he did ip5 wouldnt look crap and inferior against its competitor!
    1. NewD's Avatar
      NewD - 2012-11-08, 03:03 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
      Well, bill gates had it first. But Apple was able to popularize it.
      I'm so tired of this uninformed silly argument. It's just such a fallacy that any company 'invented' these devices before Apple. The US Patent office only issues patents for 'invented' devices. The tablet, per the US Patent Ofc, with the icon driven UI was "invented" by Apple. Period.

      Quote Originally Posted by piston597 View Post
      I think they peaked at the intro of the iPhone 4 and iPad 2. Those seem to me like their biggest leaps.
      Yes. Exactly. With the exception of Siri in the 4S - the 4's Retina Display and the iPad ( not the 2 - that was evolution only) was Apple's last innovating. But remember Steve was still around thru this"running out of ideas" period. A phone's a phone, guys. You're certainly not suggesting that Samsung is innovating ?!?

      Apple's stock will not get anywhere near 700 again any time soon without a 'truly new' product.
    1. The Highlander's Avatar
      The Highlander - 2012-11-08, 03:42 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by feidhlim1986 View Post
      I feel like Apple hasn't truly innovated since the first iPhone.
      Everything since has been an evolution of iPhone and iOS 1.0 but I wouldn't consider any true innovations
      Most of Apples real innovation has come from the Jailbreak Community. From the looks of it... there will not be a jailbreak for a long time... They don't truly know what the i5 is capable off till then. What good is the hardware if you don't have the software for it?

      I have restrained myself on buying an i5 and I am considering moving to android in the time soon if no jailbreak comes out. I am not saying this will happen to everyone, but I am sure a lot of people are holding on to their 4S for this very same reason.

      I feel they are becoming stale and iOS6 was a very STALE upgrade. So was the i5 in regards to screen size.

      They have also made a very difficult to produce i5 and Foxconn is not keeping up with demand. For the impulse buyers (a lot of them) are moving to other handsets that are readily available. I think this is the major problem for Apple's Stock. Besides... Apple's stock was over valuated anyways.
    1. feidhlim1986's Avatar
      feidhlim1986 - 2012-11-08, 06:35 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by The Highlander View Post
      Most of Apples real innovation has come from the Jailbreak Community
      Which would not make them Apple's innovations
    1. revsteve's Avatar
      revsteve - 2012-11-08, 08:09 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by NewdestinyX View Post
      Apple's stock will not get anywhere near 700 again any time soon without a 'truly new' product.
      What is so funny about this is that you think the products drive the stock price. Like any company, stock price is driven by performance, hitting/beating estimates, and having good value.

      There has been no change in the behavior of Apple customers - when a new device comes out, even if marginally better than the one they have, they buy it (which drives revenue/profits even higher) and sell the old one to subsidize it (which supports a HUUUUGE secondary market by the way). They don't need a new product to make record profits at every turn and sell millions of devices.

      In that vein, analyst estimates have been insanely out of control lately (with analysts going above apple's own guidance by 20% then missing their own expectations which drives down the price). As soon as analysts level set their expectations for the number of devices that will be sold (and apple can meet that demand- see supply chain), the stock price will rise again.

      As for why things are bad currently - Apple's price is getting battered because of supply chain problems. When they fix that and they meet demand, confidence in the stock will restore. Furthermore, the price will keep going until the stock gets gets too expensive for investors (a bad value - or high P/E).

      Even if apple stops "innovating" and just goes with incremental updates, they still trade at a 12 P/E which does NOT include their cash on hand. Thats AMAZING VALUE! If they meet their numbers, the price goes up.

      Bottom line - BUY NOW!
    1. NewD's Avatar
      NewD - 2012-11-08, 11:01 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by revsteve View Post
      What is so funny about this is that you think the products drive the stock price. Like any company, stock price is driven by performance, hitting/beating estimates, and having good value.

      There has been no change in the behavior of Apple customers - when a new device comes out, even if marginally better than the one they have, they buy it (which drives revenue/profits even higher) and sell the old one to subsidize it (which supports a HUUUUGE secondary market by the way). They don't need a new product to make record profits at every turn and sell millions of devices.

      In that vein, analyst estimates have been insanely out of control lately (with analysts going above apple's own guidance by 20% then missing their own expectations which drives down the price). As soon as analysts level set their expectations for the number of devices that will be sold (and apple can meet that demand- see supply chain), the stock price will rise again.

      As for why things are bad currently - Apple's price is getting battered because of supply chain problems. When they fix that and they meet demand, confidence in the stock will restore. Furthermore, the price will keep going until the stock gets gets too expensive for investors (a bad value - or high P/E).

      Even if apple stops "innovating" and just goes with incremental updates, they still trade at a 12 P/E which does NOT include their cash on hand. Thats AMAZING VALUE! If they meet their numbers, the price goes up.

      Bottom line - BUY NOW!
      Yes and no.. What you're not factoring is - is that PERFORMANCE (sales, etc) is driven by sales.. If Apple stops innovating - sales will drop.. Or if they glut the market with product (ipad 3, 4 and mini all within 9 months) sales will drop off. I'm not saying you're wrong in EVERYTHING you said there.. You're right on in most of it.. But innovation WILL indeed drives sales or not. There are thousands of us that haven't bought the 5 because it's just not that much of an upgrade. The reason for Apple's millions and millions more purchases than expected of these new products - specifically ip5 is NEW MARKETS it's being sold in. If you look at AMERICAN MARKET only -- the ip5 did NOT blow away ip4S.. not at all.. Now of course APPL is a global company now -- but there is a 'cap' on new markets after a while. They will NEED to innovate. They were in this EXACT same situation in mid 90's.. On the top - fired Steve, stopped innovating - despite new markets opening up -- they tanked.. Visionary leadership and new products is what makes APPL what they are.. And of course - ETHOS. Some people still buy into the commercials where the PC guy is geeky and the MAC guy is cool. The 'perception' of cool still sells.
    1. thevmax's Avatar
      thevmax - 2012-11-12, 08:23 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by The Highlander View Post
      Most of Apples real innovation has come from the Jailbreak Community. From the looks of it... there will not be a jailbreak for a long time... They don't truly know what the i5 is capable off till then. What good is the hardware if you don't have the software for it?

      I have restrained myself on buying an i5 and I am considering moving to android in the time soon if no jailbreak comes out. I am not saying this will happen to everyone, but I am sure a lot of people are holding on to their 4S for this very same reason.

      I feel they are becoming stale and iOS6 was a very STALE upgrade. So was the i5 in regards to screen size.

      They have also made a very difficult to produce i5 and Foxconn is not keeping up with demand. For the impulse buyers (a lot of them) are moving to other handsets that are readily available. I think this is the major problem for Apple's Stock. Besides... Apple's stock was over valuated anyways.
      I agree with you about jailbreaking the iphone 5 and not knowing what it is capable of.
      But, I have purchased an iphone 5 and sold my iphone 4.

      What a lot of people here don't talk about, is how well IOS 6 works with the iphone 5.
      I subscribe to a number of podcasts and it was a pain getting updates before.
      Now I get them within a day of the broadcast automatically.
      Looking through and selecting, downloading podcasts is almost instant now.
      Everything functions faster now, even the APP Store, with multiple downloads occuring at the same time,
      and then the option to run the app while still in the app store.
      I initially wanted a bigger screen, but my reach on the 5 fits just right.


      Like most people, I was extremely disappointed when Apple replaced Google Maps.
      And the loss of YouTube was a bad move on Apple's part.

      But the functioning of the iphone 5 is three times what the iphone 4 was.
      It took me over a minute and 20 seconds to boot the iphone 4 from off.
      It took me 23 seconds to boot the iphone 5.


      ...Don't get me wrong! I really miss my jailbreak!
    1. NewD's Avatar
      NewD - 2012-11-12, 02:04 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by thevmax View Post
      I agree with you about jailbreaking the iphone 5 and not knowing what it is capable of.
      But, I have purchased an iphone 5 and sold my iphone 4.

      What a lot of people here don't talk about, is how well IOS 6 works with the iphone 5.
      I subscribe to a number of podcasts and it was a pain getting updates before.
      Now I get them within a day of the broadcast automatically.
      Looking through and selecting, downloading podcasts is almost instant now.
      Everything functions faster now, even the APP Store, with multiple downloads occuring at the same time,
      and then the option to run the app while still in the app store.
      I initially wanted a bigger screen, but my reach on the 5 fits just right.


      Like most people, I was extremely disappointed when Apple replaced Google Maps.
      And the loss of YouTube was a bad move on Apple's part.

      But the functioning of the iphone 5 is three times what the iphone 4 was.
      It took me over a minute and 20 seconds to boot the iphone 4 from off.
      It took me 23 seconds to boot the iphone 5.


      ...Don't get me wrong! I really miss my jailbreak!
      I have to echo the same thing here. All new iPhones are at least 2 times if not 3 times the previous phones were in power and features. There's really no comparing the 5 to the 4. The 5 is superior, as a machine, in every measurable way. The Google Maps and YouTube absence are unfortunate victims of a 'political' war between Apple and Google where we're caught in the middle. It's really sad. Apple Maps is just 'so bad'. But as with all things Apple - it will get better. But Google will always be the best with maps. I hope Apple and Google can get back 'into bed' with each other eventually.

      But the Jailbreak is still VERY far off. By this time with previous iOSes (two months after a release of a new iOS) the devs have had at least an exploit discovered, a true jailbreak (not a failbreak) and a tethered JB within a few weeks. We've heard nothing out of the devs at all. Not a word.. That means it will take a VERY long time this time. And last time (5.1.1 Absinthe) was a longer wait than ever before. I had high hopes of getting my iP5 for Christmas since there'd certainly be a jailbreak by then. But I have a feeling that won't happen. I am NOT upgrading until there's a JB. Just can't live without a JB anymore. I'm too invested in my tweaks and themes.

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